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Evaluation

RPM Seminar

Modeling

Level 1: No prior knowledge of the subject (0-3 Years)

C:MM:L1

C:MM:L2

S:CT:L1

S:CT:L1

S:DA:L1

S:DA:L2

S:DA:L3

T:AN:L1

M-8 - Stepping into the Actuarial Modeling Wonderland

Monday, March 18, 2024
11:30 AM – 12:30 PM CST
CE: 1.2
Session Description: Actuaries need to keep basic principles in mind when using predictive models to solve business problems. Considerations such as sampling bias, segmentation, and proper framing of the question are crucial in order to find the optimal solution.

This session will give an overview of common modeling concepts, told in the framework of famous mathematical paradoxes. Learn how Sleeping Beauty, Simpson, and Berkson relate to insurance modeling, and how understanding these statistical phenomena can enhance the analytic process and enable actuaries to overcome common modeling hurdles.

Learning Objectives:

  • Become familiar with statistical paradoxes in evaluating data of which every modeler should be mindful.
  • Learn how statistical paradoxes may come up as phenomenon in actuarial modeling, specific to insurance problems.
  • Develop strategies for how to handle statistical paradoxes and navigate potential solutions.